Antibody testing you heathens.

Swin - weren't you already thinking that serological testing was the answer?

I’d like to read them with Alan Titchmarsh and Isla Fisher. And at a certain point of the evening, flip the nod to Titchmarsh and he leaves quietly, locking the door behind him.

Trigs indeed - the date I refer to, 18th March, was when numbers dropped to 50%. They of course continued to fall. I am most interested in trends of public engagement from 14 days ago as they suggest what effect we might see on the current COVID numbers.

I like to read Wu's posts with a cup of tea, a bourbon biscuit, and a dictionary

Pad, no it's definitely not that one. This guy is only doing nationwide stuff.

BBC reporting London Underground was 94% down YoY today Dr Wu but I concur with you let’s not pop our corks til the serological results are in.

wu that sounds really bad if less than 3% of the population has actually been infected in any way

Went for my first bit of fresh air and predictably some people are still arseholes. Roads are safest to cycle on they've ever been round here and some prick is still cycling on the narrow pavement and made me have to stand out in the road to avoid him brushing into me. I just don't understand what functions for a brain in some people.

New modelling data from Imperial suggests however that only 2.7% of population infected as of 28th March with pretty tight “credible intervals” ie range. It’s all hugely speculative until we get serological testing.

Tomato - couldn't open RS's link but if it's the one the BBC and Guardian use it'll do your head in if you're a maths teacher. As I 've already complained on here it's pretty crap. It has,' Somerset ';' Bath and East Somerset 'and' North 'Somerset' in our part of the world, which has led to people here in West Somerset (District Council Taunton and Somerset West ; parliamentary constituency Bridgwater and West Somerset) declaring that we have no cases. Sorry that's a bit detailed but I looked at the list in some detail and it's not the only nonsense. It compares apples, Bramleys and pears.

I am cautiously optimistic about the COVID data over the last few days, particularly the mortality. Even allowing for a weekend effect we aren’t seeing a big increase day on day. Other data suggesting we are flattening the curve also emerging including a static number of hospital admissions in the last three days. And we have reason to think we might see a flattening as markers of public engagement are also promising 10-14 days ago, with the Tube already at most 50% usual numbers on 18th March.

Tudor got arrested when he was on a holiday in North Korea. He sent me a couple of postcards. Both said everything was absolutely fine.

OI - no idea, mate. Just thought that I'd give the beard-strokers a reason to wrack the duty-neuron.

Padders - no idea. I had 8 months off from this place because I found it too depressing. During that time, he went AWOL. Tag-searched him the other day and his last few messages gave no clues as to his motivation. Loving your 50p coins, by the way :-)

And where is Tudor, GG? Miss him on here.

Definitely remember the protein man with his placards in Oxford Street. Protein causes passion? Some such.

tGG is a spoiled child the same as a spoilt child? Both are grammatically acceptable but the meanings may be drifting. Spoiled hints at damaged, spoilt at over-indulged?

Sandy - your views on hanged & hung (easy) and spoilt & spoiled, please.

Should've gone to specsavers. Uncle threw me there.

Defensive blunder by WUP massive allows OI hatrick.

I'm surprised that Tudor hasn't come out of self-isolation to go "LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEA-BURRRRN!"

Oooooo! One of the TILs has escaped! She has chosen to leave a country that 118 deaths yesterday to go back to one that had 800+

RS - Sunday and Monday figures (i.e. what happened over the weekend) have dipped each week so tomorrow's figures are important. Positive results from around a third of tests are steady for the last few days so if we test more there is likely to be a big jump in cases.

Congratulations to Scott and Mrs W